【気象TOPICS】気象庁発表の最新「台風情報」

サクラの満開情報をチェックしたり、お花見の計画を立てている時期なのに、もう台風の話?と思われるかもしれませんが、気象庁から台風に関する「最新情報」が発表されましたので共有させていただきたいと思います。

気象庁が発表している「台風情報」は、これまでの歴史の中で何度もバージョンアップされてきました。以下、ここ30年間の改善の歴史です。

• 1982年・・・予報円方式を開始
• 1986年・・・予報円+暴風警戒域方式を開始
• 1989年・・・48時間進路予報開始
• 1992年・・・72時間進路予報開始
• 1997年・・・予報円の改善(確率60% → 確率70%)
• 2000年・・・予報円の改善
• 2001年・・・48時間強度予報開始
• 2003年・・・72時間強度予報開始
• 2004年・・・予報円の改善(平均で約10%縮小)
• 2007年・・・台風情報の充実(24時間先までの3時間刻みの予報、最大瞬間風速の予報、暴風警戒域全体を囲む線の表示等の開始)
• 2008年・・・予報円の改善(平均で約15%縮小)
• 2009年・・・5日進路予報開始
• 2016年・・・予報円の改善(平均で約20~40%縮小)
• 2019年・・・5日強度予報開始

4~5日先については「進路」のみだった予報が今年から5日先の最大風速など「強度」の予報もスタート!これは大きな改善ですね。これまでの改善の方向は3種・予報期間を延ばすこと・情報の見せ方・精度(予報円を小さくすること)などでした。2007年に大きな改革がありましたが、他にも注目すべきトピックスとして1997年の改善では確率が10%アップ、2016年の改善では、予報円がだいぶ小さくなっています。予報円が小さくなる、ということはつまり「台風の中心がどこにいくか、予想される範囲が狭くなる=精度がアップする」ということです。

台風の進路予報の精度向上を理解するには気象に関する専門知識が必要ですが、各種データを参考値として総合的に判断している、ということがわかりました。日本だけのデータではなく「地球全体」を対象として観測されたデータが利用されているようです。

台風が発生して、気になるのは進路や強度ですよね。特に進路に関しては予報円のどこに中心がいくかわからない!ちなみにあの予報円は「過去の統計に基づいている」んだそうです。「あの予報円の見方、イマイチよくわからない・・・!予報円を見たら、日本を縦断する感じで丸の中に列島全部入っているじゃないですか!でも全然こなかったこともありますよね」と、思われた方。あれには「見方」があるのです。

「台風中心が予報円に入る確率」が70%近い

これが前提です。
つまりこういうことです。

この図は“予報円の中に台風の中心が入って”いますが、AとBでは、その後全く違う進路になりますし、台風による影響の範囲も大きく変わります。図のBの位置に入ってしまうとその後の日本国内、とくに東京や関東は大荒れになるかもしれないですが、Aの位置に中心が入った場合は、Bの位置に比べると関東地方にはあまり大きな影響は見られない可能性が高くなります。

台風の予報作業はいくつもの手順を経て、分析・計算の上で成り立っています。データだけに頼ることなく、予報官がチェックして検討・修正も行われます。そこまでやっても100%の精度にはならない、というのは自然の驚異としか言いようがありません。

ここ数年、大雨や台風による被害が甚大で深刻な問題になっています。気象庁をはじめ、民間の気象会社も気象予報士も天気や台風の進路を「当てる」のが目的ではなく、気象異常によって起こる被害を最小限に食い止めたい、被災者を一人でも減らしたい!という思いで、日々精度のアップに努力している、ということがよくわかりました。

4~5日前に以前よりも情報が増える、ということは、その分、対策や準備をする時間を多く貰えるということです。日頃の備えはもちろん重要ですが、いざ!というときが「直前」にならないよう、日頃から興味を持って見ていただけたらと思います。

本日は気象庁から発表されたホットなニュースとして最新情報のお届けでした。ライフレンジャーのアップデート(この情報の対応)が決まりましたらまたお知らせしたいと思います!

(アール)

シェア!

218 件のコメント

  • cbd for dogs

    […]very few web-sites that come about to become comprehensive beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly very well worth checking out[…]

  • Trans Hub Porn

    […]very couple of websites that occur to be comprehensive beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly effectively really worth checking out[…]

  • Buy Percocet Online

    […]although internet sites we backlink to below are considerably not related to ours, we feel they are in fact really worth a go by way of, so possess a look[…]

  • 샌즈카지노

    […]we like to honor many other web web-sites around the internet, even if they aren稚 linked to us, by linking to them. Below are some webpages worth checking out[…]

  • anaimmi

    […]please visit the web sites we comply with, like this a single, as it represents our picks through the web[…]

  • best cbd gummies

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a handful of unrelated information, nonetheless seriously really worth taking a search, whoa did one particular discover about Mid East has got extra problerms at the same time […]

  • cbd for dogs

    […]here are some links to web pages that we link to for the reason that we think they may be really worth visiting[…]

  • white maeng da kratom

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine several unrelated information, nevertheless genuinely worth taking a look, whoa did a single learn about Mid East has got additional problerms at the same time […]

  • working visa

    […]very handful of web-sites that come about to be comprehensive beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly effectively really worth checking out[…]

  • buy cbd oil

    […]although internet websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not connected to ours, we really feel they may be truly really worth a go by way of, so have a look[…]

  • male masturbation

    […]very couple of web sites that occur to be comprehensive beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly properly worth checking out[…]

  • kratom for sale

    […]please pay a visit to the internet sites we comply with, including this one particular, as it represents our picks in the web[…]

  • Basenji Puppies For Sale

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a number of unrelated data, nevertheless seriously really worth taking a appear, whoa did one master about Mid East has got more problerms at the same time […]

  • mp3juices

    […]please take a look at the web-sites we stick to, which includes this 1, as it represents our picks from the web[…]

  • art online

    […]just beneath, are quite a few completely not connected websites to ours, nonetheless, they are surely worth going over[…]

  • Home, Garden

    […]very handful of web sites that happen to be comprehensive below, from our point of view are undoubtedly effectively really worth checking out[…]

  • bondage spank

    […]Every the moment in a though we select blogs that we study. Listed below would be the newest web pages that we opt for […]

  • clit sex toy

    […]please stop by the sites we comply with, which includes this one particular, as it represents our picks from the web[…]

  • pinball machines for sale

    […]although internet websites we backlink to below are considerably not related to ours, we really feel they are basically worth a go by means of, so possess a look[…]

  • FLOUR MILL

    […]just beneath, are many entirely not related web sites to ours, on the other hand, they may be certainly worth going over[…]

  • Juneau Empire

    […]that will be the end of this article. Here you will discover some web pages that we believe you will value, just click the hyperlinks over[…]

  • buy weed

    […]check beneath, are some entirely unrelated sites to ours, however, they may be most trustworthy sources that we use[…]

  • buy weed

    […]please take a look at the internet sites we follow, including this a single, as it represents our picks from the web[…]

  • SF Examiner

    […]always a significant fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don稚 get a whole lot of link appreciate from[…]

  • albino a+

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a handful of unrelated information, nonetheless definitely worth taking a search, whoa did one study about Mid East has got far more problerms too […]

  • Kelowna movers

    […]very couple of internet sites that take place to be detailed beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly very well worth checking out[…]

  • Sig P229

    […]please stop by the web sites we stick to, such as this one, because it represents our picks through the web[…]

  • latest technology

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a couple of unrelated information, nevertheless definitely worth taking a search, whoa did 1 discover about Mid East has got more problerms also […]

  • male stroker

    […]although web sites we backlink to below are considerably not connected to ours, we really feel they are basically worth a go by way of, so possess a look[…]

  • canada pharmacy

    […]we like to honor many other world wide web web-sites around the internet, even though they aren稚 linked to us, by linking to them. Under are some webpages worth checking out[…]

  • Magic Mushroom Edibles

    […]although internet websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not related to ours, we really feel they may be basically worth a go by way of, so possess a look[…]

  • mersin escort

    […]very handful of internet sites that transpire to become in depth beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly effectively really worth checking out[…]

  • Restaurants

    […]Every once inside a though we opt for blogs that we study. Listed beneath are the most current web pages that we choose […]

  • streamcomplet

    […]Every when in a although we choose blogs that we study. Listed below would be the newest internet sites that we pick out […]

  • shift a car

    […]just beneath, are several absolutely not related web-sites to ours, on the other hand, they may be surely really worth going over[…]

  • pocket masturbator

    […]Every as soon as in a even though we decide on blogs that we read. Listed beneath are the most up-to-date internet sites that we pick out […]

  • w88live

    […]although web sites we backlink to below are considerably not connected to ours, we feel they’re actually worth a go by means of, so have a look[…]

  • 토토사이트

    […]Every the moment in a when we opt for blogs that we read. Listed beneath would be the most recent web-sites that we pick […]

  • 피망머니상

    […]very couple of web-sites that take place to be in depth beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly properly worth checking out[…]

  • alcolado glacial

    […]we like to honor quite a few other net web-sites around the web, even when they aren稚 linked to us, by linking to them. Underneath are some webpages really worth checking out[…]

  • go Africa tours

    […]please pay a visit to the web pages we stick to, which includes this one particular, as it represents our picks in the web[…]

  • magic mushrooms

    […]although internet websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not related to ours, we feel they are basically really worth a go by, so have a look[…]

  • ItWiseLink

    […]Every once inside a whilst we decide on blogs that we study. Listed beneath would be the most recent internet sites that we select […]

  • RissMiner

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine some unrelated information, nevertheless really really worth taking a search, whoa did a single master about Mid East has got additional problerms as well […]

  • Uganda Tour

    […]that is the end of this article. Here you値l uncover some internet sites that we feel you will appreciate, just click the hyperlinks over[…]

  • sig sauer firearms

    […]although internet websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not associated to ours, we feel they are essentially really worth a go by means of, so possess a look[…]

  • best male stokers

    […]although internet sites we backlink to below are considerably not associated to ours, we really feel they may be actually worth a go as a result of, so have a look[…]

  • happyLuke

    […]just beneath, are many absolutely not related internet sites to ours, having said that, they may be certainly really worth going over[…]

  • CableFreeTV Tech News

    […]although internet websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not connected to ours, we feel they’re really really worth a go as a result of, so possess a look[…]